Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Falls

TTF is trading lower today, continuing the ongoing bearish trend since mid-October. Providing downside are healthy supplies, high storage, and muted demand.

• TTF FEB 24 down -3.9% at 32.32€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -6.5% at 33.47€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are still expected to cool over the coming week back towards or even slightly below normal from around Jan 5.
• European natural gas storage is holding well above normal at 86.98% full on Dec 27 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five-year average of 74.7% with below normal withdrawals throughout much of December.
• European LNG sendout edged back up to 364mcm/d on Dec 27 compared to an average of nearly 404mcm/d so far in Dec.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies into Europe remain strong and are today nominated slightly higher than yesterday up at 350.7mcm/d.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 18.2% below the 2018-21 average, unchanged from the previous week, Bnteza data showed.
• LNG on water remains at the top end of the previous five year average despite falling over the last week back to 3.149m metric tonnes according to Bloomberg.
• ADNOC LNG and ENN LNG are in discussions for a deal to supply 1m mt/year of LNG for 15 years according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• China’s natural gas demand could increase between 6% - 8% in 2024 year on year according to the Chongqing Petroleum and Gas Exchange via Bloomberg.
• The Orion Bohemia has loaded the first cargo from the 3.6mtpa Prelude plant off Australia since mid-August according to ICIS.