Gas Summary at European Close: TTF on Track For Weekly Decline

TTF front month is trading higher today as Australian union workers voted to resume strike action at Chevron’s two LNG facilities, which could cause disruption to global LNG supplies at the start of the winter heating period. The front month is on track for a weekly net decline of around €4.6/MWh due to warm weather, low demand high storage.

• TTF NOV 23 up 4.7% at 37.93€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 2.6% at 45.04€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 2.6% at 44€/MWh
• ICE TTF aggregate traded volumes were yesterday relatively unchanged at 248k contracts.
• Union workers at Chevron’s two LNG facilities, Gorgon and Wheatstone, voted to restart industrial action after accusing the company on reneging its commitments.
• The latest weather forecast shows temperatures across NW and central Europe generally holding above normal in the coming week before cooling from the middle of the month back to near normal.
• Norwegian natural gas flows to Europe were nominated today at 286.1mcm/d, still below the five-year average for this time of the year amid a prolonged maintenance period.
• TTF price volatility has been almost three times the historic average through 2023 reflecting a fragile global and European gas balance and tight supply fundamentals as well as structural changes according to IEA.
• The EU’s third tender under its joint gas purchasing platform matched 11.9bcm of natural gas supply and demand according to Commission Vice-President Marcos Sefcovic.
• European natural gas storage is up to 96.47% full on 4 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.1%.
• Swiss hydropower reserves declined by 0.7 percentage points last week to 86.7% of capacity as of 2 October, marking the first week-on-week decline in stocks since late April.
• Azerbaijan may not be able to double natural gas exports to Europe by 2027 amid failure to secure long-term sales according to Bloomberg sources.
• LNG sendout to Europe increased to 319mcm/d on 4 Oct to the highest since early September but still below levels of around 375mcm/d seen this time last year.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in November, to Europe in December, and to Asia in January 2024. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $0.91/MMBtu in November.
• Indian Oil Corp issued a tender for three LNG cargoes for delivery between October to November according to two Reuters sources. The tender closes October 6.
• JKM-TTF Nov 23 up 0$/mmbtu at 1.06$/mmbtu