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Free AccessGas Summary at European Close: TTF Pulls Back
TTF front month extends the pullback from a peak of 45€/MWh on 25 Sep driven by a lack of cold weather in the forecast combining with the return of Norwegian supplies. The front month remains above levels seen earlier in the month given potential supply risks from US LNG maintenance.
- TTF OCT 23 down -1.5% at 39.7€/MWh
- TTF WIN 23 down -1.1% at 46.06€/MWh
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up slightly to 237.2mcm/d with further capacity coming back online this week. Outages are expected to fall from 121mcm/d today to 63mcm/d by the weekend according to Gassco.
- ICE TTF natural gas futures and options open interest has risen to 2.78m contracts up almost 50% from the same time last year. Trading volume across both markets also surged by 50% from a year ago with daily aggregate futures traded volumes averaging 246k in Sep 2023 compared to 124k in Sep 2022.
- The submission deadline for European companies to join the third joint gas purchasing tender closes today.
- The latest two week weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures for the next week in NW Europe and has moved slightly warmer back just above normal into week two.
- European natural gas storage is up to 95.08% full on 25 Sep according to GIE data with injection rates recovering this week and compared to the five-year average of 86.55%.
- Norwegian hydropower reserves last week rose sharply by 3.9 percentage points to 82.8% of capacity as of the end of last week, widening the surplus to the five-year average to the highest level so far this year, NVE data show.
- LNG sendout to Europe is holding around 250mcm/d this week and below an average of 292mcm/d so far in September and around 370mcm/d this time last year.
- LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities fell by 1.89% on the week to 1.56mn tons as of 24 September.
- TOTAL AIMS TO RESTART MOZAMBIQUE LNG PROJECT BEFORE YR-END: CEO -bbg
- A number of LNG tankers are waiting off the coast of Europe for higher prices later in the winter for new destinations, as LNG on water continues to rise according to ICIS.
- MNI COMMODITY WEEKLY: Russian Oil Product Ban Adds to Market Tightness – Full piece here: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscQCLlLgI6ag2Jh8nGQ~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6nHWZXwptIPjO1OcQ
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.