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Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rallies

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is has extended its rally up through the highs from yesterday boosted by European gas supply risks. Upside has been driven by geopolitical tensions, the Baltic pipeline leak and Australia LNG strikes with mediation talks extended to Friday. The move is also supported by cooling temperatures across much of Europe back below normal over the coming weekend.

  • TTF NOV 23 up 15% at 53€/MWh
  • TTF Q1 24 up 10.8% at 56.35€/MWh
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday dipped lower but remain quite high 308k contracts.
  • Mediation talks between Chevron and the unions representing the workers at the firm’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities have been further extended to Friday, as there are more outstanding issues according to Reuters.
  • The latest weather forecast is relatively unchanged with above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe falling slightly below normal over the weekend.
  • European natural gas demand is expected to be 17% below the 2017-2021 average, while a slow demand recovery is expected between 2024 and 2026 according to ICIS.
  • German natural gas consumption last week stood 37% below the 2018-2021 average, largely driven by lower demand from households and small businesses, Bnetza data showed.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 326.6mcm/d.
  • European natural gas storage is up to 97.18% full on 10 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.98% amid near normal injection rates in the last week.
  • Germany could still run into natural gas supply problems this winter despite high gas storage levels, storage operators group INES said, cited by Reuters.
  • LNG net import flows are estimate at 357.8mcm/d on 10 Oct according to Bloomberg after rising above the recent average of around 295mcm/d to 350mcm/d the previous day.
  • India’s GAIL has issued a swap tender offering one LNG cargo for loading in the US in exchange for one LNG cargo for delivery to India in January, according to Reuters sources.
  • US LNG exports could rise about 11% yr/yr to approximately 89m tons (11.75bcf/d) in 2023 according to Bloomberg analysis.
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