Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rebounds

European gas has rebounded on the day, with stronger gains during the European afternoon session. Healthy near-term supplies and low demand due to the warm start to winter are weighing on prices but the market remains sensitive to any unplanned supply disruptions.

• TTF DEC 23 up 4.1% at 46.69€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 3.2% at 48.35€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast still shows little sign of cold weather with at or slightly above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the two-week outlook.
• European industrial gas demand destruction caused by higher prices following Russia’s invasion into Ukraine is expected to persist, Engie CEO Catherine MacGregor said.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are steady today at 331.3mcm/d but could dip again into the weekend with a 20.5mcm/d outage at Oseberg on 10-12 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels are up to 99.63% full on 5 Nov according to GIE data compared to the five-year average of 90.0% as small injections continue despite the traditional start to the withdrawal season.
• Natural gas storage inventories at capacity in Germany are likely to prevent a winter shortage according to German gas-storage organization INES.
• Russian gas flows to Europe transit through Ukraine totalled 12.1bcm in Jan-Oct, a decline of 32% year on year and 66% versus 2021 according to AGPU.
• China has sufficient gas inventories to overcome potential supply disruptions from Central Asian countries that warned to potentially prioritize domestic supplies over exports this winter, consultant BSC said in a note.
• China's natural gas imports - both LNG and piped gas - fell to the lowest level since February at 8.79 million tons in October.
• European LNG sendout dropped slightly back to 347mcm/d on 5 Nov are reaching the highest since June at 392mcm/d on 3 Nov.
• EU imports of Russian LNG stood at around 13mn tons in the first ten months of this year, slightly lower than for the same period last year at 13.3mn tons, LSEG data showed.