Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rising

TTF extends gains back towards yesterday’s high before easing back slightly with LNG supply risks weighed against returning Norwegian pipeline supplies

• TTF OCT 23 up 3.8% at 38.7€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 0.9% at 46.98€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 202mcm/d with the restart of the Troll field after maintenance. Capacity is expected to gradually ramp up over the coming few days. Gassco shows overall Norwegian capacity reductions falling to 41mcm/d by 29 Sep.
• Chevron today accepted a proposal that was put forward by Australia’s Fair Work Commission to end the dispute and ongoing strike action between Chevron and the unions. The unions can accept the proposal until Friday 09:00 Sydney time, otherwise both parties will need to attend the hearing scheduled with the regulator on Friday 10:00 Sydney time.
• Slow European natural gas storage injections continue with total storage up to 94.34% full on 19 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 85.3%.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 24.7% below the 2018-2021 average. Gas demand from the industrial sector exceeded 2022 levels for the third consecutive week.
• Maintenance on the Power of Siberia gas pipeline from Russia to China will start Thursday.
• China's natural gas demand this year is expected to grow by 8% on the year to 396.4bcm, analyst, Xie Xuguang, at CNOOC's research division said.
• China may launch LNG futures trading for the first time later this year, Chinese brokerage Zhongtai Futures Co said.
• LNG sendout to Europe continues to recover this week to 282mcm/d on 19 Sep after falling over last weekend. Sendout has averaged around 299mcm/d so far in Sep compared to an average of 365mcm/d in Sep 2022.
• LNG floating storage cargoes are starting to build up offshore the coast of Europe, such as the Cool Rider, which has been circling off the southwest of the UK since around 9 September.
• Germany’s Deutsche Energy will hold its first auctions in October concerning regasification capacity for the Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven LNG terminals.