Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Sinks to 7-Month Low

Front month TTF has plummeted to its lowest since mid-July with pressure from an upward revision in temperature forecasts for Europe, high stocks with below-normal withdrawal rates, and recovering Norwegian pipeline flows.

• TTF MAR 24 down -5.3% at 25.68€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -4% at 26.5€/MWh
• The temperature forecast for NW and central Europe has turned warmer with above normal expected throughout most of the two week forecast period.
• European natural gas storage levels are up near the previous five-year range highs at 67.02% full on Feb 10 according to GIE data.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 347.2mcm/d.
• Sendout at France’s Fos Cavaou and Fos Tonkin LNG terminals has been reduced due to strike action according to Elengy.
• The fundamental gas balance is consistent with TTF & JKM prices around 20% higher than current levels at around 12$/mmbtu and with more volatility ahead according to Timera Energy global gas modelling.
• ICE has the cut the margin requirements on European front-month TTF gas by another 19%.
• Austria is seeking to take radical steps to reduce it continued reliance on Russian gas imports.
• ADNOC Gas expects little change in its sales for 2024 compared to the previous year, according to Platts.
• BP produced 26 bcm of gas from the Shah Deniz field offshore Azerbaijan in 2023, up 4% on the year, according to Interfax.