Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Slumps

Front month TTF has steadily fallen throughout the day, breaking through yesterday’s low. Milder weather, below-normal storage withdrawals, and forecasts for high wind output have added downside.

• TTF MAR 24 down -4.5% at 28.88€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.1% at 29.8€/MWh
• NW and central Europe are forecast to see mild weather continue through the first week of February before temperatures fall back to near normal from around Feb 12.
• European natural gas consumption rose by 12% year on year in January, amid strong gas use in the industrial sector and colder weather, IEA analyst, Greg Molnar said.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 23.2% below the 2018-2021 average, weighed on by milder weather, Bnetza data showed.
• Nominations for Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today at 345.7mcm/d after falling to 333.8mcm/d yesterday amid unplanned works at Kollsnes due to process problems.
• European natural gas storage remains above normal at 70.6 full on Jan 30 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 57.6%. Net withdrawals have edge higher this week but remain below normal rates.
• European LNG sendout was holding steady at 359mcm/d on Jan 30 compared to an average of about 381mcm/d during Jan.
• Gazprom’s natural gas supplies to Europe edged down on the month by 4.1% to 2.53bcm in January, Reuters calculations showed.
• Russia’s gas output rose 3.3% y/y in December to 61.9bcm according to Bloomberg based on Federal Statistics Service data.
• Recent signings of long-term LNG contracts by Petrobangla highlights Bangladesh’s preference for securing term supply rather than relying on the spot market, according to Platts.