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Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Softens

NATURAL GAS

European TTF has fallen on the day, although steadily regained much of its losses during the afternoon. LNG flows and Norwegian pipeline supplies remain stable, while risk of a near term cold snap remains low. Wider concerns around Middle East tensions are capping downside.

  • TTF NOV 23 down -1% at 50.3€/MWh
  • TTF Q1 24 up 0.1% at 56.8€/MWh
  • The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures are expected throughout most of the two week forecast period although could drift back towards normal at the end of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down at 294.4mcm/d due to a planned outage at Oseberg adding to unplanned outages at Asgard and SEGAL fields.
  • European natural gas storage continues to slowly build up to the highest in over ten years at 98.12% full on 17 Oct according to GIE data.
  • German natural gas consumption last week stood 32.6% below the 2018-2021 average. Demand rose by 12.7% week on week, largely driven by a recovery in industrial demand use, Bnetza data showed.
  • Finland determined that an external party was involved in the breach of the Balticconnector gas pipeline and the two data cables, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto said.
  • Gazprom and CNPC signed an agreement of extra gas supplies through 2023 according to Bloomberg.
  • Total European LNG sendout was slightly lower at 319mcm/d on 17 Oct according to Bloomberg after rising to 358mcm/d the previous day.
  • Asian demand for LNG has been subdued as the market approaches winter, as high JKM prices and forecasts for above average temperatures keep a lid on buying. This is likely to put some downward pressure on prices in the near term.
  • BP shipped the first LNG cargo from the Tangguh Train 3 gas facility in Indonesia, which was initially scheduled to start commissioning in 2020, operator SKK Migas said in a statement.
  • Shell bought two December DES China spot LNG cargoes via the Platts Market on Close window, according to Bloomberg’ sources.
  • LNG - Customers of the proposed Lake Charles LNG export terminal are urging the US DOE to issue a new export license soon to enable a final investment decision according to S&P Global.
  • Strength in natural gas prices may result in an increase of fuel oil consumption as a substitute, particularly in Asia and Europe according to FGE earlier this week.
  • Japan’s LNG imports from Russia during the first six months of the current financial year have fallen 21% year-on-year, according to TASS.
  • Russia is scheduled to start commissioning of the first train of the Arctic 2 LNG facility by late-2023 and the first cargoes will be shipped early next year according to Deputy PM Alexander Novak.

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