Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Softens

European TTF has fallen on the day, although steadily regained much of its losses during the afternoon. LNG flows and Norwegian pipeline supplies remain stable, while risk of a near term cold snap remains low. Wider concerns around Middle East tensions are capping downside.

• TTF NOV 23 down -1% at 50.3€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 0.1% at 56.8€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures are expected throughout most of the two week forecast period although could drift back towards normal at the end of October.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down at 294.4mcm/d due to a planned outage at Oseberg adding to unplanned outages at Asgard and SEGAL fields.
• European natural gas storage continues to slowly build up to the highest in over ten years at 98.12% full on 17 Oct according to GIE data.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 32.6% below the 2018-2021 average. Demand rose by 12.7% week on week, largely driven by a recovery in industrial demand use, Bnetza data showed.
• Finland determined that an external party was involved in the breach of the Balticconnector gas pipeline and the two data cables, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto said.
• Gazprom and CNPC signed an agreement of extra gas supplies through 2023 according to Bloomberg.
• Total European LNG sendout was slightly lower at 319mcm/d on 17 Oct according to Bloomberg after rising to 358mcm/d the previous day.
• Asian demand for LNG has been subdued as the market approaches winter, as high JKM prices and forecasts for above average temperatures keep a lid on buying. This is likely to put some downward pressure on prices in the near term.
• BP shipped the first LNG cargo from the Tangguh Train 3 gas facility in Indonesia, which was initially scheduled to start commissioning in 2020, operator SKK Migas said in a statement.
• Shell bought two December DES China spot LNG cargoes via the Platts Market on Close window, according to Bloomberg’ sources.
• LNG - Customers of the proposed Lake Charles LNG export terminal are urging the US DOE to issue a new export license soon to enable a final investment decision according to S&P Global.
• Strength in natural gas prices may result in an increase of fuel oil consumption as a substitute, particularly in Asia and Europe according to FGE earlier this week.
• Japan’s LNG imports from Russia during the first six months of the current financial year have fallen 21% year-on-year, according to TASS.
• Russia is scheduled to start commissioning of the first train of the Arctic 2 LNG facility by late-2023 and the first cargoes will be shipped early next year according to Deputy PM Alexander Novak.