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Gasoil Backwardation Strengthens Amid Tighter Supply Concerns

DIESEL

The Gasoil Jun24-Dec24 time spread has risen to the highest since mid September amid market concern for tighter European supplies due to Red Sea tanker diversions.

  • The upcoming refinery maintenance season is also adding to the price support. European refinery maintenance for the first half of 2024 will peak at 1.18mbpd in April according to an Energy Aspect forecast. Analysts at shipbroker Gibson said European spring maintenance is expected to peak around March.
  • The prompt time spread has also continued to edge higher to extend gains seen earlier in January.
  • Diesel cracks are finding some support this month amid the tighter supply concern as the Gasoil-Brent spread has this week risen to the highest since early October. The US diesel cracks has also strengthened although at a slower rate than Europe up to the highest since late November.
  • European imports of diesel are expected to decline well below 2023 levels in the first half of February with supply from India the lowest in two years. US Gulf Coast diesel exports to Europe are however on track for a Jan record according to Kpler to help provide some cover for declining supply from the Middle East.
    • Gasoil FEB 24 up 0.6% at 860.5$/mt
    • ULSD MAR 24 up 0.7% at 2.8$/gal
    • Gasoil FEB 24-MAR 24 up 0.25$/mt at 18.25$/mt
    • Gasoil JUN 24-DEC 24 up 4.75$/mt at 34.75$/mt
    • EU Gasoil-Brent up 0.2$/bbl at 28.56$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.4$/bbl at 41.09$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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