Gasoil Spreads Steady With Impact from Russia Sanctions Unclear

Gasoil time spreads are holding steady as the market waits for further visibility on the impact of the recent oil product sanctions on Russian oil output.

• The prompt time spread is trading around 10$/mt this week after bouncing late last week from near parity on 9 Feb. The announced cut to Russian crude production for March has renewed concerns for product supplies despite recent healthy output.
• Voluntary disruption to the supply of Russian oil products is less likely than for crude according to FGE. They suggest the pool of buyers for Russian oil products is much wider than for crude and the price cap level makes it a lot easier for fuel to reach distant markets on Western-backed fleet.
• Europe continue to source alternative supplies from Middle East, US, and China after boosting inventories in the last couple of months ahead of the Russian ban. ARA Gasoil inventories were last week reported up above the five year average for the first time since Jul 2021.
  • Gasoil MAR 23 down -1.1% at 840.75$/mt
  • Gasoil MAR 23-APR 23 down -1$/mt at 10.25$/mt
  • Gasoil APR 23-MAY 23 down -1.25$/mt at 15.25$/mt
  • Gasoil JUN 23-DEC 23 down -2.5$/mt at 33.25$/mt
  • Gasoil DEC 23-DEC 24 down -2$/mt at 43.5$/mt