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GBP Fails to Materially Benefit From Firmer CPI

FOREX
  • GBP is among the strongest performers early Wednesday, rising on the back of a higher-than-expected CPI release. GBP/USD tested, but failed to break, Tuesday NY highs of 1.2212 as markets shrug off transient factors as being behind the stubbornness of CPI across September. OIS-implied market pricing further suggests that an unchanged decision from the BoE at their November meeting is the most likely outcome.
  • AUD and NZD populate the top-end of the G10 table, however short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support, would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection.
  • The USD Index trades lower for a third consecutive session, however pullbacks are limited at present at the shaky geopolitical backdrop and inconsistent equity performance prevents any more protracted weakness.
  • JPY is mid-table after volatility earlier in the week, with USD/JPY still running into cluster resistance layered between 149.83-85. Clearance here would be a bullish development, opening levels last seen on Oct3. This makes US/JN yield differentials and any BoJ communications the focus going forward.
  • US housing data is in focus going forward, with housing starts and building permits top of the docket. Canadian housing data also crosses as well as speeches from Fed's Waller, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Harker and Cook. Their appearances should be more informative relative to the Fed's Beige Book.
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