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GBP Markets Off Least Dovish Levels Of Day Despite PMI Breakdown

STIR

A broader move away from session extremes in wider markets (USD & bonds move off worst levels of the day, with Euro Stoxx off best levels) factors into GBP STIRs.

  • RoW growth dynamics probably help the USD stabilise post-European & UK PMIs, along with filtering into wider trade.
  • That is despite the domestic PMI survey suggesting that “with growth accelerating and prices on the rise again, February's data mean policymakers are increasingly likely to err on the side of caution when considering the appropriateness of cutting interest rates."
  • SONIA futures run +1.0 to -3.0 through the blues, with the strip seeing some light twist steepening and contracts operating off worst levels.
  • BoE-dated OIS once again fully prices the first 25bp cut for the Aug ’24 MPC, while ~67bp of cuts are showing through ’24 at typing, after printing comfortably below 65bp of cuts in early trade.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.197+0.9
May-245.152-3.6
Jun-245.065-12.3
Aug-244.920-26.8
Sep-244.799-38.9
Nov-244.636-55.2
Dec-244.517-67.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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