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GDP Data Headlines Local Docket - 0830ET

CANADA
  • GDP for Q3 plus the separate monthly report for Sep/Oct advance headlines the local docket at 0830ET, landing alongside the lagged payroll employment data for Sept before tomorrow’s labour force survey for Nov.
  • Analysts estimate real GDP growth of just 0.1% annualized in Q3 after what was at the time a surprisingly soft -0.2% in Q2.
  • The range for Q3 sits at -0.5% (RBC) to +0.5% (Citi) – all fifteen estimates are below the 0.8% the BoC pencilled in at its October MPR, revised down from an initial 1.5% back in July.
  • RBC note that real retail sales were down 2.1% annualized in Q3, whilst “restaurant sales declined ~4.5% in Q3 controlling for price changes and our own tracking of service-sector spending softened” whilst mfg output was down heavily over July and August. They see some boost from residential investment (“likely edged higher with higher housing starts offsetting a pullback in home resales”) along with a positive contribution from net exports but that’s “largely from lower imports tied to softening in domestic demand”.
  • TD, close to consensus with 0.0%, note that “there is some asymmetric downside pressure here, where a beat is still going to be an objectively weak print and a miss is quite dovish.” “We do emphasize that this is a front-end story and that we see steepener pressures in Canada and value on our side when selling/paying Canada in 10s and longs against the US.”
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