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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK DATA
MNI (London)
The UK economy contracted in March, whilst managing to expand by +0.1% q/q as anticipated in Q1. Monthly GDP contracted by -0.3% m/m, against expectations of stalling.
- Wet weather likely dampened spending appetite in March, with the services sector the main contributor to the fall in GDP, posting a -0.5% m/m decline. This was driven by wholesale and retail trade, with car sales falling below pre-pandemic levels. Production saw the strongest growth since May 2021, boosted by pharmaceuticals.
- Despite the March slump, UK GDP rose by +0.1% q/q in Q1, in line with consensus expectations and holding pace with Q4 2022. Over the quarter, services expanded by +0.1% q/q, driven by increases in information, communication and admin support services. Construction expanded by +0.7% q/q and production by +0.1% q/q, with +0.5% q/q growth in manufacturing.
- Household consumption stalled on the quarter, as high inflation continued to weaken spending appetite.
- This data follow's yesterday's BOE meet where the Bank's latest growth forecasts saw a marked upgrade and a recession no longer in sight. Lower energy prices, fiscal stimulus and recovering confidence underscored a markedly less-weak outlook, however in aggregate the growth picture looks relatively stagnant.
- The BOE projects overall underlying output to be positive at +0.2% in Q1 and Q2 (when excluding bank holidays and strikes), whilst headline 2023 Q2 GDP was upgraded to flatline at 0% (vs -0.7% in Feb).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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