GDP Expected to Strengthen in Q1 - Q1 GDP...>

UK DATA: GDP Expected to Strengthen in Q1

- Q1 GDP Growth Bbg Consensus and MNI Median: 1.8% y/y, 0.5% q/q

- Previous (Q4 2018): 1.4% y/y, 0.2% q/q

- Markets look for a temporary stronger Q1 GDP. Growth expectations of 1.8% y/y

from 1.4% in Q4-18 and 1.2% in Q1-18, led partly by Brexit-related stockpiling

in the manufacturing sector.

- PMI data for Mar reveals a stronger manufacturing and construction sector,

underlining the optimistic outlook for Q1 GDP

- The less volatile 3m/3m trend GDP was 0.3% in Feb, the same level as Jan.

- GDP growth slowed in Feb on monthly basis due to weaker service sector

- The service sector growth weakened in February to 0.1% from 0.3% in January,

however still contributed 0.08pp to overall growth in Feb

- Finc'l & insurance services posted their 12th monthly decline and the longest

such run on record.

- Manufacturing and overall production recovered somewhat in Feb, contributing

the most to GDP growth in the month, up 0.09pp each.