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GDP Figures Eyed

INDIA

GDP figures for Q1 will be released later in the session, consensus for the Y/Y figure is 1.0% from 0.4% previously while GVA (gross value added) is expected at 2.6% from 1.0% last time out.

  • Goldman Sachs are more optimistic than median estimates: "We expect real GVA growth to have improved to 3.0% yoy. in 2021 Q1 from 1% yoy in 2020 Q4 on the back of improvements in both manufacturing and services sector indicators that we track in our weekly update. However, because of an increase in food subsidy payouts in FY21 to retire arrears due to Food Corporation of India (FCI) accumulated over prior years, we expect real GDP growth to remain at 0.4% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 0.9% yoy, 2020 Q4: 0.4% yoy) despite higher than budgeted indirect tax collections (note: GDP = GVA + indirect taxes – subsidies). For FY21, we expect real GDP growth at -7.6% yoy (BBG consensus: -7.5% yoy)"

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