MNI: Fed: Policy Well Positioned To Respond To Risks

CANADA JUNE JOBS -1.4K VS FORECAST +20K, PRIOR +26.7K

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 5

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Plans To Borrow Hundred Bln Yuan CGB - Press

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY48 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1289 Fri; -0.35% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 585; OIL RIGS 479; GAS RIGS 101

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France to Issue Bills Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU/UK Syndications Due Next Week

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Geopolitical Risk Impact Pared, But Fed Rates Still Lower On The Day

STIR
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates have recovered much of their plunge lower overnight on latest Israel-Iran strikes, but still give back all or at least some of yesterday’s push higher helped in part by strong data and a hawkish Williams.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp May, 5.5bp Jun, 13bp Jul, 24bp Sep and 42bp Dec.
  • The dovish impact from the risk-off moves have been skewed towards near-term meetings, with meetings out to July 0.5-1bp lower than pre-jobless claims levels but end-2024 implied rates still higher.
  • Goolsbee (’25 voter) is the sole scheduled speaker at 1030ET, appearing at the SABEW annual conference including prepared text. He has already spoken since CPI but we watch to see if he repeats Williams' "no urgency" for cuts.
  • Goolsbee on Apr 12: multiple inflation readings higher than we want [referring to the past 2-3 months of CPI inflation]. Will feel a lot better if PCE inflation shows long arc of inflation continuing its way down, but if PCE reinflates, "we will stabilize the prices".
  • He’s followed by the Fed’s Financial Stability Report at 1600ET.
176 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Fed Funds implied rates have recovered much of their plunge lower overnight on latest Israel-Iran strikes, but still give back all or at least some of yesterday’s push higher helped in part by strong data and a hawkish Williams.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp May, 5.5bp Jun, 13bp Jul, 24bp Sep and 42bp Dec.
  • The dovish impact from the risk-off moves have been skewed towards near-term meetings, with meetings out to July 0.5-1bp lower than pre-jobless claims levels but end-2024 implied rates still higher.
  • Goolsbee (’25 voter) is the sole scheduled speaker at 1030ET, appearing at the SABEW annual conference including prepared text. He has already spoken since CPI but we watch to see if he repeats Williams' "no urgency" for cuts.
  • Goolsbee on Apr 12: multiple inflation readings higher than we want [referring to the past 2-3 months of CPI inflation]. Will feel a lot better if PCE inflation shows long arc of inflation continuing its way down, but if PCE reinflates, "we will stabilize the prices".
  • He’s followed by the Fed’s Financial Stability Report at 1600ET.