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Geopolitics Leads Ahead Of Retail Sales

CANADA
  • Data ahead: Retail sales for Dec/Jan advance at 0830ET. Last month’s flash pencilled in a -2.1% M/M fall in nominal sales in Dec after two solid gains. As a rough proxy for a retail deflator in Jan, headline CPI was +0.6% M/M and core +0.4% M/M.
  • FX: USDCAD trades almost unchanged on the day at 1.2705 with the continued evolution in Russia-Ukraine headlines, having been down -0.3% three hours ago. It currently sits well within yesterday’s range and very close to the post-BOC/FOMC average of 1.2710.
  • FI: GoCs saw a sizeable rally on balance yesterday, led by the belly with 5YY down 4.3bps. 10Y futures opened softer but have since firmed and currently suggest limited change for cash GoCs upon open.

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