Germany ZEW Survey: Details Of Analysts' Economic Sentiment

Release for: October 2018

Survey among 194 analysts between October 01 and October 15, 2018

Source: Center for European Economic Research. ZEW

*Change in Level From Previous Month

                     Good       Normal        Bad         Balance 

                 Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level  Chg  Level   Chg

------------------------------------------------------------------

Current economy

Eurozone          35.1   1.9   61.8  -3.5    3.1  1.6   32.0   0.3

Germany           71.7  -4.8   26.7   3.7    1.6  1.1   70.1  -5.9

United States     89.9   5.3    9.0  -5.9    1.1  0.6   88.8   4.7

Japan             21.4  -0.3   74.6  -0.4    4.0  0.7   17.4  -1.0

United Kingdom     5.6  -3.1   74.6  -0.9   19.8  4.0  -14.2  -7.1

France            18.5  -2.6   74.9   1.9    6.6  0.7   11.9  -3.3

Italy              3.3  -0.5   51.1  -1.1   45.6  1.6  -42.3  -2.1

                        Improve      Unchanged     Worse        Balance

                       Level   Chg  Level    Chg  Level   Chg  Level    Chg

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Economic expectations

Eurozone                11.0  -5.3   58.6   -1.6   30.4   6.9  -19.4  -12.2

Germany                  9.9  -1.9   55.5  -10.3   34.6  12.2  -24.7  -14.1

United States           10.1  -0.2   61.0   -1.2   28.9   1.4  -18.8   -1.6

Japan                    6.9  -2.4   82.1    3.4   11.0  -1.0   -4.1   -1.4

United Kingdom           2.7  -0.6   26.7   -5.7   70.6   6.3  -67.9   -6.9

France                  12.1  -3.5   64.1   -3.1   23.8   6.6  -11.7  -10.1

Italy                    4.4  -1.6   47.8   -5.5   47.8   7.1  -43.4   -8.7

                               Rise       Unchanged     Decline      Balance

                           Level   Chg  Level    Chg  Level   Chg  Level    Chg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CPI

Eurozone                    43.2   8.0   46.8   -6.8   10.0  -1.2   33.2    9.2

Germany                     45.2   5.9   45.3   -5.2    9.5  -0.7   35.7    6.6

United States               63.1   6.7   29.5   -4.9    7.4  -1.8   55.7    8.5

Japan                       21.7   5.7   74.3   -5.3    4.0  -0.4   17.7    6.1

United Kingdom              53.7  -0.4   37.7    0.0    8.6   0.4   45.1   -0.8

France                      35.4   4.0   54.7   -3.1    9.9  -0.9   25.5    4.9

Italy                       36.3   5.0   50.6   -4.0   13.1  -1.0   23.2    6.0

Short-term interest rates

Eurozone                    18.5   8.3   81.5   -8.3    0.0   0.0   18.5    8.3

United States               92.1   5.7    7.9   -5.7    0.0   0.0   92.1    5.7

Japan                        7.9   5.1   91.5   -5.7    0.6   0.6    7.3    4.5

United Kingdom              41.1  -5.0   52.0    0.9    6.9   4.1   34.2   -9.1

Long-term interest rates

Germany                     73.1  13.6   25.8  -13.2    1.1  -0.4   72.0   14.0

United States               76.7   3.5   21.7   -2.5    1.6  -1.0   75.1    4.5

Japan                       23.3   4.6   76.1   -4.1    0.6  -0.5   22.7    5.1

United Kingdom              64.8   4.9   31.8   -3.9    3.4  -1.0   61.4    5.9

Stock market prices

Eurozone                    46.4  -1.2   39.1   -1.3   14.5   2.5   31.9   -3.7

Germany(DAX)                50.8  -1.1   35.2    0.2   14.0   0.9   36.8   -2.0

Germany(NEMAX50)            49.4  -5.6   35.5    2.8   15.1   2.8   34.3   -8.4

United States               41.1  -3.0   40.0    0.5   18.9   2.5   22.2   -5.5

Japan                       37.1   0.7   51.2    0.6   11.7  -1.3   25.4    2.0

United Kingdom              20.0  -9.1   41.9    4.3   38.1   4.8  -18.1  -13.9

France                      38.1  -6.4   48.1    7.2   13.8  -0.8   24.3   -5.6

Italy                       22.0  -6.8   39.6   -4.0   38.4  10.8  -16.4  -17.6

                  Appreciation  Unchanged   Depreciation  Balance 

Exchange rates vs euro(1)  Level   Chg  Level    Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

US Dollar                   41.7   0.2   34.1   -4.2   24.2   4.0   17.5  -3.8

Yen                         13.4  -1.6   73.8    2.1   12.8  -0.5    0.6  -1.1

British Pound               12.5   1.8   26.9   -5.7   60.6   3.9  -48.1  -2.1

Swiss Franc                 16.9   1.3   68.5   -1.5   14.6   0.2    2.3   1.1

Crude oil prices            22.6   1.4   52.4  -10.6   25.0   9.2   -2.4  -7.8

                        Improve      Unchanged    Worse         Balance 

                     Level   Chg  Level    Chg  Level   Chg  Level    Chg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Germany Sectors

Banks                 16.2   3.7   45.3   -8.9   38.5   5.2  -22.3   -1.5

Insurances            16.7   4.2   54.7   -4.2   28.6   0.0  -11.9    4.2

Vehicle industry       6.1   2.5   30.9  -16.7   63.0  14.2  -56.9  -11.7

Chemical ind.         22.6  -1.1   67.3    3.1   10.1  -2.0   12.5    0.9

Steel industry        12.6  -2.0   52.8    0.7   34.6   1.3  -22.0   -3.3

Electrical ind.       23.4  -1.9   65.2   -0.5   11.4   2.4   12.0   -4.3

Machinery ind.        26.9  -0.8   52.5   -5.9   20.6   6.7    6.3   -7.5

Consumer gds/retail   43.5  -0.5   47.8   -4.0    8.7   4.5   34.8   -5.0

Construction          46.6  -0.6   42.2   -3.3   11.2   3.9   35.4   -4.5

Utilities             14.4  -0.6   69.2   -7.4   16.4   8.0   -2.0   -8.6

Service Sector        32.0   0.1   62.3   -2.8    5.7   2.7   26.3   -2.6

Telecommunication     21.3  -2.8   71.6   -0.7    7.1   3.5   14.2   -6.3

Info Technology       54.2  -4.9   41.9    2.9    3.9   2.0   50.3   -6.9

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negative balance indicates an expected depreciation and the currency vs 

the euro. A positive an appreciation

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