Global LNG Imports to Rise in November on Colder Weather

Global LNG imports are forecast to rise by 9% on the month to 33.9mn tons in November. This would also be up by 1% from 2022 levels, driven by an uptick in demand from Europe and North Asia due to higher gas demand for heating according to BNEF.

• The November LNG imports forecast has been revised down from previous estimates due to expectations of lower interest in spot cargoes from Asia amid higher prices. The average awarded tender price for fourth-quarter delivery to Asian markets is estimated to be around $15.2MMBtu, based on Bloomberg News reports.
• Chinese LNG imports this month are projected to rise by 1.4mn tons on the month to 6.6mn tons. Shipments into South Korea also expected to rise by 0.9mn tons to 3mn tons, while Japanese LNG buying is forecast edge down on the month by 0.3mn tons to 5.2mn amid potential storage withdrawals offsetting rising demand for heating.
• Northwest Europe and Italy are expected to ramp up imports this month by 1mn tons to 6.8mn tons, due to higher demand for heating.
• October imports totaled 31.1mn tons, up by 2% month on month and up by 1% on the year.
• Global LNG supply is projected to rise by 4% on the month to 35.7mn tons in November, given an expected ramp up of Qatari supplies that fell to unseasonal lows in October. Qatari LNG shipments this month are forecast to rebound to 6.9mn tons, up by 1.2mn tons on the month. US exports are expected to dip by 0.3mn tons on the month to 7.8mn tons.
• Egyptian exports have been revised down to one cargo in November and five cargoes in December, due to reduced natural gas pipeline supplies from Israel.