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Global Markets Focus On ECB Decision

LATAM
  • Global markets focus on the ECB meeting today, with markets pricing in around 34bp at writing (i.e. 25bp fully priced with around 35% probability of a 50bp hike priced).
  • Following the Reuters sources piece earlier this week, the September meeting has moved to price in a cumulative 98bp and so if there isn't a 50bp hike today and the ECB doesn't strongly hint towards a larger than 50bp hike we are likely to see the curve come back a bit.
  • Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing data highlight the US docket.

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