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Today's data covers consumer confidence for Germany and the Eurozone, Italian factory gate inflation and retail data on the UK and Canada. The week ahead looks relatively light on the data front as we near towards Xmas.
German GfK Consumer Confidence to Fall (0700 GMT)
Analysts are forecasting Germany’s GfK headline consumer sentiment to drop to -2.7 points for January, following December’s decline to the six-month low of -1.6. This decline highlights substantial covid-related restrictions for the unvaccinated in Germany combined with the squeeze of high inflation on disposable income and spending.
Italian PPI Seen Higher (1000 GMT)
Italy’s domestic PPI November is projected to increase from October’s series high of 25.3% y/y growth, whilst monthly PPI is predicted to ease to following October’s jump to 9.4% m/m. Factory gate inflation continues to surge on the back of soaring prices for energy and intermediate goods, however these numbers are likely inflated by low base effects.
UK Retail Sales – Christmas Rush Ending Prematurely (1100 GMT)
CBI's reported retail sales in the UK are set to dampen in December to 25 from November’s strong reading of 39 which saw early Christmas shopping boom as consumers feared imminent supply chain disruptions ahead of the festive season. Base effects play a role here once again, as they encompass tightened covid-19 restrictions of last winter.
Canada Retail Sales Bounce (1330 GMT)
The consensus is expecting monthly retail sales to recover to 1.0% m/m for October, following September’s fall in retail sales of -0.6% m/m. This was largely a result of the dip in automotive sales which suffered from acute supply bottlenecks, although a substantial drop in clothing sales added downward pressure.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Slides (1500 GMT)
Analysts are projecting a further weakening of consumer confidence in the Eurozone to -8.1 in the prelim December estimate, declining further from -6.8 in November. This follows Friday’s HICP data which saw annual headline inflation in the Eurozone reach a record high of 4.9% as consumers face price increases not only in energy but also industrial goods, services and food.
There are no key policy maker speeches this week in the lead up to Xmas.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 21/12/2021 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/12/2021 | 1100/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 21/12/2021 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 21/12/2021 | 1330/0830 | * | | US | current account balance |
| 21/12/2021 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | CA | Retail Trade |
| 21/12/2021 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 21/12/2021 | 1500/1600 | ** |  | EU | consumer confidence indicator (p) |
| 21/12/2021 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 21/12/2021 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.