MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: EZ March Deficit Post-Sanctions

The week kicks of with markets watching Euro data to gauge the extent of rising fuel prices on the Eurozone trade balance. The focus in the afternoon will be Canadian manufacturing and the New York manufacturing survey.

Eurozone Trade Balance (1000 BST)

The Eurozone aggregate trade deficit is anticipated to grow by over 7bln EUR to 16.5bln in the seasonally adjusted March data. The trade balance slipped into the red in November. The non-seasonally adjusted number will see a fall in similar magnitude from -7.6bln EUR, a massive slide from March 2021’s 19.1bln EUR surplus.

The record March deficit will reflect soaring energy prices underpinned by strong sanctions on the Russian economy. The deficit will likely see little relief in upcoming months.

Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Trade (1330 BST)

Manufacturing sales are expected to have risen +2.0% m/m in March (prelim estimate: +1.7%), down from the strong +4.2% m/m seen in February. Petroleum and coal, primary metal and paper production were highlighted as drivers of growth.

Wholesale sales are likely to flatline at 0.0%, still an improvement on February’s -0.4% m/m dip.

This follows Canadian housing starts data, seen ticking up by 4k to 250k in April and remaining elevated above pre-pandemic levels, despite a slow downwards trend.

US Empire State Manufacturing Survey (1330 BST)

An almost 10-point slump is pencilled in for the Empire manufacturing index for May, with forecasts expecting a fall to 15.0 (April 24.6).

The marked upbeat April survey was underpinned by strong new orders and shipments, whilst delivery times lengthened less severely than in previous months, implying that supply-chain disruptions from both the Ukraine war and Chinese lockdowns were so far manageable.

Today’s key policymaker appearances include the ECBs Fabio Panetta and Philip R. Lane who will be discussing the digital Euro, followed by NY Fed’s John Williams in the afternoon.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
16/05/2022	0600/0800	*		DE	Wholesale Prices
16/05/2022	0820/1020			EU	ECB Panetta Speech at Digital Euro Event
16/05/2022	0840/1040			EU	ECB Panetta & Lane in Discussion on Digital Euro
16/05/2022	0900/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
16/05/2022	1215/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
16/05/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
16/05/2022	1255/0855			US	New York Fed's John Williams
16/05/2022	1300/0900	*		CA	Home Sales – CREA (Canadian real estate association)
16/05/2022	1400/1500			UK	BOE TSC to discuss May MPR
16/05/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
16/05/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
16/05/2022	2000/1600	**		US	TICS