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Global Morning Briefing: Focus on UK Public Finances

MNI (London)

Tuesday kicks off with the release of UK public sector finances at 0700BST. At 1330BST, US existing home sales data will be closely watched before the focus turns to the publication of EZ flash consumer confidence at 1500BST.

UK borrowing forecast to slow

Public sector net borrowing is forecast at GBP 24.3bn in May, after coming in at GBP 31.0bn in the previous month. April borrowing was the second highest April figure on record. However, it was GBP 15.6bn less than in April 2020. April's report showed that government receipts increased by 7.0%, while central government spending decreased by 11.9% compared to a year ago. Government spending is set to remain elevated until the support schemes expire.

Source: Office for National Statistics

US existing home sales seen falling

Existing home sales are forecast to decline by 2.4% to 5.71 million in May, after dropping by 2.7% to 5.85 million in the previous month. This would mark the fourth successive increase of existing home sales. However, year-to-date sales (January to April) were up 20% and the median existing-home sales price rose to a record high in April. The report noted that the increasing supply is likely to cool down the steep increase in prices later in the year.

EZ consumer confidence projected to rise further

Consumer confidence is expected to improve further in June to -3, which would mark the highest reading since Jan 2018. The index already rose significantly in May to an almost three-year high of -5.1. May's uptick showed the fourth successive increase and the highest level since the start of the pandemic. The improving progress of the vaccination programs around Europe and low infection rates at the start of the summer should provide a boost consumer's mood going forward.

The main events to look out for on Tuesday include speeches by ECB's Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel, Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester, San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly and Kansas City Fed's Esther George.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3814 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3814 |

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