Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The key focus for Wednesday is the FOMC decision, expected at 1900BST. German and US trade balances are also on the data schedule, as well as services PMIs.
German Trade Data (0700 BST)
A fall in both exports and imports is expected in Germany’s March trade data, with exports seen contracting by -2.1% m/m, down 8.5pp sharply from February. Imports are set to slump to 0.7% m/m growth, sliding 3.8pp. This would leave the trade balance to contract by 1.0b to 10.0b for the month of March.
Dampened global demands, increased price pressures and supply shortages associated with Russian sanctions enforced at the end of February will be highlighted in today’s release.
According to the VDA, German car production fell 29% in March alone. Both Russian sanctions and China’s zero-Covid policy have generated additional acute material shortages.
Final Services PMIs
Spanish and Italian services PMIs are both seen strengthening by approx. 2.5 points to 55.9 and 54.5, respectively, in April. This is a recovery from the March slump seen by both countries. Across the eurozone, services were seen improving further on the tailwind of Covid restrictions easing, bolstering economies as manufacturing sectors declined.
French, German, Eurozone and US final prints are expected to confirm flash estimates. For the US this will be confirmation of a 3.3-point slide to 54.7 where the cost-of-living crisis and labour supply shortages outweighed, dampening services demand.
US ISM Services PMI (1500 BST)
Alternatively, the ISM non-manufacturing index is anticipated to inch up by 0.2 points to 58.5. This could however largely signify a continued rebound from an unexpected February decline.
US Trade Balance (1330 BST)
The March US trade balance will likely plunge further to -$107.1b, falling shy of $18b in March to a new record low. Soaring oil prices will see a substantial increase in imports in March, following the spike in prices due to Russian sanctions imposed.
FOMC Decision (1900 BST)
Today’s FOMC decision will see a 50bp hike and the launch of the balance sheet reduction in an aggressive hawkish move as the Fed brings tackling inflation of 8.5% to the forefront. Click here for our comprehensive preview of the meeting.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 04/05/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Trade Balance |
| 04/05/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/05/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/05/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/05/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/05/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/05/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | BOE M4 |
| 04/05/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 04/05/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Retail Sales |
| 04/05/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 04/05/2022 | 1215/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 04/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 04/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 04/05/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Services Index (final) |
| 04/05/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 04/05/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 04/05/2022 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.