Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The week wraps up with UK retail sales, Spanish GDP and PPI and both German IFO and Italian business confidence in the morning. The ECB’s M3 money supply for February will also due, whilst this afternoon's focus will be on whether the March U. Michigan sentiment indicator is revised.
UK Retail Sales (0700 GMT)
UK retail sales growth is anticipated to have softened in the February print, slowing to +0.7% m/m from +1.9% m/m. Compared to Feb 2021, a 1.3pp slower growth of +7.8% y/y is expected. The slowdown excluding fuel is projected to be more pronounced, with analysts looking for a 1.6pp softening to +5.6% y/y.
The current inflationary squeeze on consumer disposable income is likely the key downwards driving force on today’s retail, which, due to survey timing, will omit effects of the Ukraine war.
Spanish Final Q4 GDP & Feb PPI (0800 GMT)
Spain's final Q4 GDP should confirm growth of +2.0% q/q and +5.2% y/y, which was significantly stronger than market expectations for the flash release.
The February factory-gate inflation print will be relevant in supplying a baseline for assessing the effects of the Ukraine war on input prices, namely heightened costs for energy and certain commodities, in the upcoming months. A record +35.7% y/y was seen in January, which lies over 5pp above the eurozone aggregate level. Energy products (+91.4% y/y) and intermediate goods (+21.7% y/y) were key upward drivers.
German and Italian March Sentiment Surveys (0900 GMT)
The German and Italian sentiment indexes for March will be closely watched, as they will give a snapshot of the extent of the Ukraine invasion on the German economic climate.
German IFO Median survey estimates see business climate at 94.2 (vs 98.9 in Feb), current assessment at 96.6 (vs 98.6 in Feb) and future expectations taking the biggest hit and slumping to 92.0 (vs 99.2 in Feb).
Italian Business & Consumer Confidence: Italian manufacturing confidence is seen stepping down in March to 111.3 (vs 113.4 in Feb), whilst consumer confidence is seen taking a larger hit at 108.0 (vs 112.4 in Feb).
Following overly pessimistic eurozone consumer confidence figures from Wednesday, there will be substantial downside risks to this data, with the most recent estimates projected around two points lower than the median across the IFO indexes and for the Italian manufacturing survey.
Final U Michigan Sentiment and Inflation Survey (1400 GMT)
The final U Michigan prints are projected to confirm preliminary numbers, with sentiment at the 12-year low of 59.7 (vs 62.8 Feb) albeit more recent surveys are expecting upside surprises up to 60.5. The 1-year inflation expected at +5.4% y/y/. This is an over 40-year high for the index, up from +4.9% in February which was the approximate level of expectations from October to February.
Today's key policymaker appearances are all US-based, available links are in the calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 25/03/2022 | 0001/0001 | ** |  | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25/03/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Retail Sales |
| 25/03/2022 | 0800/0900 | *** |  | ES | GDP (f) |
| 25/03/2022 | 0800/0900 | ** | | ES | PPI |
| 25/03/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 25/03/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25/03/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | EU | M3 |
| 25/03/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 25/03/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | NAR pending home sales |
| 25/03/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Final Michigan Sentiment Index |
| 25/03/2022 | 1400/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 25/03/2022 | 1400/1000 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 25/03/2022 | 1500/1100 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 25/03/2022 | 1500/1100 |  | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 25/03/2022 | 1530/1130 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 25/03/2022 | 1600/1200 | | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 25/03/2022 | 1645/1245 | | CA | BOC Deputy Kozicki speaks at SF Fed conference on households, the pandemic & monetary policy |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.