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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday’s key events include German IP in the morning, followed by Eurozone retail. This afternoon sees the publication of the ECB’s March minutes and the weekly US jobless report.
German Industrial Production – Some Thoughts (0700 BST)
German February IP is projected to slow to +0.2% m/m from +2.7% m/m seen in January. Compared to February 2021 IP remains +3.7% y/y stronger, albeit mainly due to the comparison period having more substantial lockdown restrictions.
February data largely predates the 24/2 start of the Ukraine invasion.
The Ukraine war has worsened key raw material shortages for the German automotive industry, notably Ukrainian neon which has exacerbated the global chip shortage, as highlighted by the ifo German automotive survey. This coupled with soaring gas prices has the sector spooked that new car demand will suffer further.
The latest manufacturing orders dropped -2.2% m/m (Jan +1.8% m/m) due largely to a fall in foreign demand. As such further downside risks to today’s IP are likely.
Eurozone Retail Trade (1000 BST)
Retail sales for the Eurozone will have remained muted in February, with soft growth of +0.5% m/m (Jan +0.2% m/m) and +4.9% y/y (Jan +7.8% y/y) anticipated. Despite easing Covid restrictions, the inflationary squeeze on disposable income will have dampened demand.
ECB March Meeting Accounts (1230 BST)
The decision to accelerate the end of net asset purchases was a hawkish surprise in the March ECB meeting, whilst emphasising that the end of net asset purchases was not to be interpreted as the imminent start of the hiking cycle. Inflation seemed the more dominant concern in the March meeting, rather than the threat to growth of the Ukraine war. Today’s minutes will be important in shedding light on the matter.
US Jobless Claims (1330 BST)
Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 2 are expected to continue at the level of the week prior at +200k. This remains below the pre-pandemic levels which hovered around 210-220k. The US labour market remains extremely tight, underpinning confidence in the Fed’s recently hawkish shift which sees markets pricing a 50bp hike for the May meeting.
Today’s key policymaker appearances include the BOE’s Huw Pill, followed by a heavy Fed appearance schedule: St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard, Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans and NY Fed’s John Williams are all due. Where available, links are in the calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 07/04/2022 | 0130/1130 | ** |  | AU | Trade Balance |
| 07/04/2022 | 0545/0745 | ** |  | CH | unemployment |
| 07/04/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/04/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | retail sales |
| 07/04/2022 | 1130/1330 | | EU | ECB March meet Accts published | |
| 07/04/2022 | 1215/1315 |  | UK | BOE Pill Opening at BOE Sovereign Bond Market Conference | |
| 07/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 07/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 07/04/2022 | 1300/0900 | | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
| 07/04/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 07/04/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 07/04/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 07/04/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 07/04/2022 | 1800/1400 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic, Chicago Fed's Charles Evans | |
| 07/04/2022 | 1900/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
| 07/04/2022 | 2005/1605 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.