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Friday's data calendar is relatively condense, focussing on UK and Canadian retail, followed by Eurozone consumer confidence in the afternoon.
UK Retail Sales (0700 GMT)
Retail sales likely declined by 0.6% in December, according to City analysts, with consumers opting to stay at home as the Omicron Covid variant spread through the country. The expected December slump comes after a higher-then-expected 1.4% increase in November suggested that shoppers took advantage of Black Friday promotions staged through late November.
Many retailers started Black Friday discounting ahead of the big day on 26 November, potentially shifting December sales into the penultimate month of the year. Cyber Monday, which fell on 29 November, will be included with the December data, but industry leaders make little mention of the event when discussing December activity.
Canada Retail Trade to Moderate (1330 GMT)
Canadian retail sales are expected to have dampened slightly in December, however hovering above pre-pandemic levels and remaining strong given current economic conditions. Retail sales excluding auto is seen stepping down to 1.2% m/m from 1.3% m/m. December retail including auto is projected to moderate to 1.2% m/m from 1.6% m/m in November.
The Canadian economy appears set for a hike, following this week’s upbeat Business Outlook survey which highlighted record high optimism and inflation running at the fastest pace since 1991. Markets are pricing the BoC will hike for the first time since 2018 by 25bp to 0.5% next week.
Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence to Slide (1500 GMT)
Eurozone consumer confidence is forecasted to slide further to -9.0 in the January flash estimate. This follows the nine-month low of -8.3 in December as confidence dipped due to surging inflation and omicron cases, whereby several Eurozone states enforcing restrictions.
This data follows Thursday’s final inflation print for the Eurozone, which saw HICP rose by 0.4% in November, taking inflation to an annual rate of 5.0% in December. This was the highest since the birth of the euro and a long way from the -0.3% reading recorded a year earlier, confirming the flash estimate released earlier in the month.
European Central Bank officials have downplayed the rise in eurozone inflation, stressing that volatile energy prices have accounted for much of the rise. However, services added 1.02 percentage points to inflation, rising by 0.6% between November and December for a 2.4% annual rise, down from 2.7% in November.
Today's key policymaker appearances will be the ECB's President Christine Lagarde at Davo's Agenda 2022 and the BOE's MPC member Catherine Mann at OMFIF. Links to events are on the calendar below.
Graph source: European Commission, EU
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 21/01/2022 | 0001/0001 | ** |  | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21/01/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Retail Sales |
| 21/01/2022 | 1230/1330 |  | EU | ECB Lagarde on Global Economic Outlook at WEF | |
| 21/01/2022 | 1300/1300 | | UK | BOE Mann speaks at OMFIF | |
| 21/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | CA | Retail Trade |
| 21/01/2022 | 1500/1600 | ** | | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.