MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: UK Labour Report in Focus

Tuesday kicks off with UK labour data for April in the spotlight, with focus turning towards US retail and IP in the afternoon.

UK Labour Report (0700 BST)

Employment is likely have risen by just 5,000 in the January-to-March period, after a 10,000 gain the in the three months to February. Payroll employment is forecast to rise by 51,000 in April, after a 35,000 increase in March, the smallest addition since February 2021.

However, the jobless rate is seen remaining at 3.8%, matching the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2019, with the employment rate remaining well below pre-pandemic levels. In the BOE’s post-MPC press conference, Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the strength of the UK labour market as grounds for underlying confidence despite the cost-of-living crisis.

Earnings growth likely steadied in the first quarter, matching the 5.4% annual gain recorded in the three months to February. But with CPIH averaging 5.5% over the opening three months of the year, total earnings likely fell into the red.

Italian Final HICP (0900 BST)

Today’s final April print is seen confirming harmonised inflation at 6.6% y/y, which is a 0.2pp deceleration from +6.8% in March.

Eurozone Flash GDP (1000 BST)

The second flash prelim GDP release for 2022 Q1 is projected to see +0.2% q/q and +5.0% y/y growth, confirming original estimates.

US Retail Sales (1330 BST)

Following March’s soft +0.7% m/m expansion, the advance estimate for April retail sales is expected to tick up to +1.0% m/m. With the bulk of this growth owing to the automotive industry, retail excluding auto will likely slow down to +0.4% m/m, 1pp softer than March.

US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation (1415 BST)

Industrial production will also see softened growth in April, with +0.5% m/m growth projected, moderating further from +0.9% in March. Worsened supply chain disruptions and persistent input price inflation continue to soften growth outlooks.

Capacity utilisation is anticipated to tick up 0.2pp to 78.5%, following last month’s rise back into the 78% range, last seen in Q1 2019. This remains below the long-run average of 79.5%.

UK Unemployment Rate & Job Vacancies (Source: ONS)

Key policymaker appearances on today’s schedule include BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe and the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell all due to speak. More Fedspeak is on the schedule, in the calendar below.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
17/05/2022	0130/1130			AU	RBA May Meeting Minutes
17/05/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
17/05/2022	0800/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
17/05/2022	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
17/05/2022	0900/1100	*		EU	Employment
17/05/2022	0900/1100	***		EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y
17/05/2022	0900/1100	***		EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q
17/05/2022	1200/0800			US	St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
17/05/2022	1230/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
17/05/2022	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
17/05/2022	1315/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
17/05/2022	1315/0915			US	Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker
17/05/2022	1400/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
17/05/2022	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
17/05/2022	1505/1605			UK	BOE Cunliffe Fireside Chat
17/05/2022	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
17/05/2022	1630/1230			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
17/05/2022	1700/1900			EU	ECB Lagarde Speech at Soroptimist International Club
17/05/2022	1800/1400			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
17/05/2022	1830/1430			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
17/05/2022	2245/1845			US	Chicago Fed's Charles Evans