Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday throws up a full schedule, starting with UK labour in the morning followed by the final Spanish inflation print, German economic sentiment, Eurozone flash GDP and US factory gate inflation.
UK Labour Report (0700 GMT)
The UK labour data is expected to see the ILO unemployment rate in the three months to December remain stable at November's 4.1%. Pre-pandemic the unemployment rate hovered around the 3.8% mark. Payrolls are seen increasing by 133,000 in January, remaining strong following a slowdown from the record high of 184,000 in December. Jobless claims dipped by 43,300 in December, a slower reading than the 95,000 decline recorded the month prior.
Spain Final CPI to Confirm Downwards Shift (0800 GMT)
January's final inflation print is expected to confirm flash estimates of +6.0% y/y for January, stepping down from +6.5% y/y the month prior. The harmonized print is also seen confirming the pull back to +6.1% y/y from +6.7% y/y, which was 1989 high. Today’s final numbers should confirm that inflation is now on a downwards trajectory, with strong contractions in monthly change of -0.5% m/m and -0.9% m/m in CPI and HICP forecasted.
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index More Optimistic (1000 GMT)
The ZEW expectations and current situations survey will shed light on the medium-term outlook for the German economy. Expectations are seen improving to 55.0in February, up from 51.7 in January. This remains significantly above pre-pandemic levels which peaked around the 30 mark, yet below the May 2021 peak of 84.4. The key driver of optimism surrounding upcoming economic growth is the assumption of significantly lower covid cases and expectations that inflation will be subsiding.
The current economic situation index highlights a stark contrast, seen remaining pessimistic at -6.5 in February, albeit improving on the January dip of -10.2. Supply chain disruptions, inflation concerns and current sentiment regarding covid cases and restrictions in Germany have caused the index to decline since October.
Eurozone Flash GDP to Confirm Prelim Flash (1000 GMT)
The preliminary estimate for Q4 2021 GDP growth is expected to remain in line with the prelim flash. Growth is projected to come in at +0.3% q/q a significant stalling from Q3 2021, where the Eurozone aggregate saw growth rates of +2.3% q/q. The year-on-year prints are expected to expand to +4.6% y/y from +3.9% y/y in Q3, highlighting recovered growth compared to the 2020 slump which saw substantial lock-down contractions in the region.
US Factory Gate Inflation Seen Lower (1330 GMT)
Analysts are looking for US final demand PPI to rise again on the month to +0.5 m/m, up from +0.2 m/m in December. On the year, factory gate inflation is predicted to see some relief, stepping down to +9.0% y/y from the +9.7% y/y in December, which edged down from the +9.8% y/y November data-series record peak.
The possible reduction in PPI gains perhaps offers an indication of a cooling US inflation. US CPI is currently running at a 40-year high of +7.5% y/y, following last week’s upside surprise. Markets are currently pricing a 50bp hike in March, however theories of possibilities of inter-meeting hikes, and immediate ends to QE are coming into focus.
No policymaker speeches are on the schedule Tuesday, however the Senate Banking Committee will be voting on Federal Reserve nominees in the evening (link in calendar below).
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 15/02/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 15/02/2022 | 0800/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15/02/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 15/02/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 15/02/2022 | 1000/1100 | * |  | EU | Employment |
| 15/02/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | GDP (p) |
| 15/02/2022 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Trade Balance |
| 15/02/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 15/02/2022 | 1315/0815 | ** |  | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 15/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | US | PPI |
| 15/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/02/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 15/02/2022 | 1400/0900 | * | | CA | Home Sales – CREA (Canadian real estate association) |
| 15/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 15/02/2022 | 1915/1415 | | US | Senate Banking Committee votes on Federal Reserve nominees | |
| 15/02/2022 | 2100/1600 | ** | | US | TICS |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.