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Global Oil Markets Supply Deficit of 1.1mb/d in Q4: BNEF

OIL

Global oil markets will likely remain in a supply deficit for the rest of the year with a shortfall of 1.1mb/d in Q4 narrowing from the 1.3mb/d deficit in Q3 according to Bloomberg.

  • The supply squeeze is being driven by continued OPEC+ output cuts and resilient demand growth despite macroeconomic headwinds, especially in China.
  • Demand is forecast to increase by 1.8mb/d in 2023 to average a record-high of 101.6mb/d this year with supply up 1.2mb/d to 101.2mb/d.
  • OPEC+ output cuts are projected to lower supply by 0.7b/d but non OPEC+ oil supply is set to grow by 2mb/d, led by the US.
  • Demand destruction due to high oil prices, additional supply from Iran, the resumption of oil flows through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, and the impact of Russia’s restrictions on fuel exports are areas of focus during Q4. Higher-for-longer interest rates could start to materially stifle economic activity beyond the immediate term.


Source: BNEF

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