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Gloomier Global Growth Outlook Positive For USD

  • Global growth and trade projections are being revised down, especially for 2023. The IMF is expected to do the same when it publishes the World Economic Outlook on October 11. Concerns remain centred around tightening global monetary policy, the European energy crisis and a weaker China.
  • The softer global backdrop tends to favour the USD on flight to quality assets. Global trade trends are also highly correlated with EM FX.
  • Leading indicators such as the PMIs, Baltic Freight Index and metal prices all suggest a slowdown in trade and therefore also in production. This is likely to hurt non-China Asia significantly more than the OECD and China itself.
  • For the full piece please click here: Global growth Oct 22a.pdf
Global Growth Outlook

Source: MNI - Market News, Bloomberg, Refinitiv, CPB

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