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Free AccessGoC Inversion Continues To Exceed Treasuries, Gilts
- GoCs mimic Treasuries with a belly-led sell-off today, with the 5Y yield +10bps at 2.99%, having fleetingly breached 3% for the first time since Jul 21, the day after Canadian CPI disappointed in the June report.
- The 5YY remains far off highs of 3.6% from mid-June though, which despite a modest steepening on the day keeps 2s5s heavily inverted at -41bps, close to lows pre-US CPI lows of -43/44bps that were the lowest since 1990.
- This segment of the curve remains more heavily inverted than in both the US and UK, as has been the case since early July [chart 1], with little weight from the post-pandemic elevation of the Canadian terms of trade [chart 2 –CAD ToT only to Q1 but WTI and broader GS ToT index back close to Q1 av].
2s5s spreads in US (white), Canada (yellow) and UK (green)Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.