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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- The day’s (on balance) stronger than expected data, including beats for Q2 GDP and lower jobless claims, have seen a large trimming of rate cut expectations to more than unwind the rise in cut pricing seen with Chair Powell’s press conference yesterday - see table below for comparison.
- The goldilocks nature of the Q2 data, with the core PCE deflator missing and suggesting a sizeable skew softer for tomorrow’s PCE data for June (with revisions to dictate latest momentum), has however meant implied rates for 2023 meetings still sit lower than before yesterday’s FOMC decision.
- Cumulative hikes from assumed 5.33% effective: +5bp Sep (+0.5bp on the day) and +9bp to a terminal 5.42% Nov (-1bp).
- Cuts from Nov terminal: 3bp to Dec’23 (from 4.5bp yesterday close), 48bp to Jun’24 (from 60bp) and 118bp to Dec’24 (from 134bp).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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