Goldman, CIBC, TD, Citi Above-Consensus Payroll Views

Some samples of above-consensus sell-side previews:

• Goldman: +750k: "Our forecast reflects a sequential easing of labor supply constraints due to the arrival of the youth summer labor force (+1.8mn in a typical June) and the wind-down of federal unemployment top-ups in some states. Coupled with very strong labor demand and continued progress on vaccinations and reopening, we believe job growth probably picked up further in the month. And while big data measures were mixed, continuing jobless claims declined significantly in states that are ending UI top-ups early (-200k relative to the trend in all other states). More generally, fewer education-sector workers reduces scope for end-of-school-year layoffs."
• CIBC +785k: "June should have seen some recruitment efforts by employers over previous months pay off in terms of attracting workers, while students off for the summer and new graduates could have provided a new pool of labor to draw from."
• TD: +800k: "Some acceleration in the private sector is suggested by the Homebase data, while government payrolls probably benefited from fewer than usual end-of-school-year layoffs."
• Citi: +860k: "with some strength related to technical factors affecting education-related employment. While continued reopenings and normalizing activity suggest an increase in workers, downside risks remain due to issues that continue to affect labor supply."