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Goldman Sachs Expecting Banxico Pause in May

MEXICO
  • In Goldman Sachs' view, the recent FX and rate developments, including the repricing of the US FOMC Fed Funds path and strong US dollar, and today’s inflation print do not provide Banxico with enough comfort to cut the policy rate at the May meeting.
  • GS note that headline inflation was pressured by non-core fruit and vegetables, while core-goods inflation remains low. However, the annual rate of headline, services, and super-core inflation accelerated from 2H March. They note that inflation among freely determined (or non-regulated) prices accelerated to 4.74% y/y in 1H April, from 4.52% in 2H March.
  • GS believe that the positive output and labour market gap, large increases in the minimum wage, and double-digit wage growth are sources of near-term upside risk to inflation, particularly services. They highlight that services inflation has been stuck in the 5.2%-5.4% range since April-23.
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