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Goldman Sachs note that "the Real....>

BRAZILIAN REAL
BRAZILIAN REAL: Goldman Sachs note that "the Real has continued to underperform
its peers, and-after depreciating roughly 30% versus the Dollar-now features the
worst year-to-date performance of any major currency. The deep BRL
undervaluation this move has created continues to be offset by an unattractive
combination of high domestic uncertainty and low carry. Domestically, political
pressure on President Bolsonaro has been exacerbated by still-elevated
coronavirus incidence. And, with the COPOM delivering a larger-than-expected
75bp cut in the May meeting, and messaging that they stand ready to cut the
Selic policy rate to below 3% in future meetings, which can continue to drive
down real yields, the risk-reward for BRL longs continues to appear
unattractive, in our view. As a result, we are shifting our USD/BRL forecasts to
6, 5.75 and 5.25 in 3, 6 and 12 months, from 5.25, 4.90 and 4.70 previously,
effectively marking-to-market to the recent moves and building in the notion
that BRL is likely to trade weaker than fair value for a considerable period of
time."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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