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Goldman Sachs on Banxico and Thursday’s Minutes

MEXICO
  • Following the August meeting, Goldman Sachs anticipated a 50bp rate hike in September (to 9.00%), and an end-2022 terminal rate of 9.50%, with risk skewed to the upside. In their assessment, the case for a follow-up 75bp rate hike in Sept would have to be supported by additional negative inflation surprises and further deterioration of inflation expectations alongside a hawkish Sept 21 FOMC decision and guidance.
  • In the minutes that are due for release tomorrow at 1500BST/1000ET, Goldman Sachs will be looking at the following topicsclosely:
    • Discussion about how restrictive monetary policy should be given the inflation and growth outlook, the appropriate pace of near-term rate hikes (set of conditions that could lead the MPC to decelerate the pace of hikes), and end-cycle terminal rate.
    • How many directors are of the view that the MPC should consider decelerating the pace of rate hikes at the next meeting(s).
    • Discussion about the real business cycle dynamics, and how a still negative output gap and significant risk of a recession in the US could constrain the monetary policy response to the challenging inflation backdrop.
    • Discussion about the implications for domestic monetary policy setting of the FOMC signalling and expected Fed Funds rate path.
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