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Goldman Sachs on BCRP:

PERU
  • As with the previous meeting's release, GS read the statement as somewhat dovish guidance: hinting at the intention to continue to reduce the level of monetary accommodation in coming meetings but not necessarily at the 50bp pace of the last three meetings. That is, the MPC does not see a compelling case to reach neutrality anytime soon and is still inclined to keep the policy stance stimulative (below neutral) for a prolonged period of time.
  • In their assessment, despite the data-dependent and somewhat dovish forward guidance, additional near-term rate hikes are likely given the deterioration of the current and prospective inflation and unstable exchange rate outlook. The still low policy rate level (highly negative real policy rate), the recurrent inflation surprises, deteriorating short- and medium-term inflation and PEN expectations, heightened political and policy uncertainty (pressuring the capital account; capital flight), and broad risk management considerations justify a frontloaded monetary policy normalization path to at least a neutral policy stance.

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