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Goldman Sachs on BCRP: Rate To Reach At Least 4.75-5.25%

  • Despite the backdrop of slower growth and the milder than expected Jan-Feb CPI prints, the overall macro environment supports continuing with the normalization of monetary policy.
  • After today’s hike, the policy stance is still significantly accommodative (real ex-ante policy rate remains low), short- and medium-term inflation expectations continue to deteriorate, moving further above target, EM and core DM central banks are turning more hawkish, and domestic policy and political uncertainty remain elevated.
  • All in all, GS expect the monetary policy rate to reach at least 4.75-5.25%.

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