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Goldman Sachs on Energy Reform Bill/Politics

MEXICO
  • The controversial government sponsored constitutional energy reform bill failed to get the required two-thirds of the vote in the Lower House for approval.
  • In all, the general perception is that the bill would likely have led to lower investment in the sector, more expensive electricity tariffs, less reliable power supply conditions, undermined the independence and autonomy of the industry regulators, and by embracing fossil fuels it would have been a step backwards towards the renewables/green energy transition. Furthermore, approval of the bill would likely have hurt overall investor sentiment.
  • However, Goldman Sachs caution that the AMLO administration still harbors deep-rooted nationalist inward-looking views for the oil & gas and mining sectors and the operating environment for private sector investors and operators in these sectors is likely to remain challenging.
  • The vote was perhaps the biggest political defeat for President AMLO since he took office and is likely to galvanize the opposition to stay together for the near-term local elections, and potentially also for the presidential election in 2024.
  • The unity shown by the opposition parties implies that it will be difficult for the Lopez Obrador administration to approve constitutional reforms, including the sought electoral reform.
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