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Goldman Sachs On Yesterday’s Inflation Data

COLOMBIA
  • Consumer prices recorded a 0.93% variation in September, significantly above the 0.75% Bloomberg consensus expectations. Furthermore, the sequential print was above the maximum inflation forecast from the central bank’s survey (0.92% mom). Annual headline inflation rose 60bp to 11.44%, the highest print since April 1999. Both core-inflation measures remain significantly above the upper bound of the central bank’s 3% ± 1.0% inflation target band.
  • As evidence of inflation dissemination, all twelve CPI groups registered positive monthly variations in September with ten groups reporting readings above 0.5%, and six above 0.7%. In addition, eleven of the twelve CPI groups registered annual readings above the 4% upper limit of the central bank’s inflation target.
  • Overall, headline and core inflation pressures remain intense. Goldman Sachs expect inflation to remain elevated throughout the remainder of the year and end 2022 visibly above the upper bound of the central bank’s inflation target band. Consequently, GS expect the MPC to extend the hiking cycle.
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