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Goldman Sachs Say Financial Pressures Are Likely To Remain Intense

ARGENTINA
  • After the first-round result, investors’ attention will turn its focus to candidate announcements and potential endorsements, according to Goldman Sachs. When it comes to Mr. Massa, given his capacity as Finance Minister and candidates, policy announcements will be key. Policy missteps are something that Argentina cannot afford at this juncture. For Mr. Milei, any announcement of cabinet positions in an eventual government, for example the finance minister, will be key.
  • On the second point, announcements or endorsements made by Ms. Bullrich and former president Mauricio Macri (Juntos por El Cambio) will be key.
  • Given the poor track record of polls uncertainty will remain elevated into the second-round election. Most polls significantly missed changes in voters support in favor of Mr. Milei ahead of the PASO in August and Mr. Massa this time around. As such, financial pressures are likely to remain intense and pressure on the exchange will persist.
  • The dynamics of Peso-denominated term deposits, in their view, will be critical for financial stability. GS also note the next debate will be on November 12.
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