MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr Aims For Broad Consensus On Capital Plan

FED'S BARR: WE THINK FAIRLY SOON WE CAN ADJUST PACE OF QT

FED BARR: EXPECT BROAD, MATERIAL CHANGES TO BASEL III PROPOSAL

MNI EM China Daily Summary: Friday, March 22

MNI China Press Digest Mar 22: Autos, Local Gov, Real-Estate

MNI: PBOC Drains Net CNY11 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

Bond Supply Calendar: Long BoE APF Sales on Monday

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 624; OIL RIGS 509; GAS RIGS 112

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction Monday

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Goldman See Payrolls Slowed By Seasonal Factors

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman see nonfarm payrolls slowing to 250k despite a sizeable 50k coming from government, as a result of more restrictive seasonal factors and weaker big data indicators.
  • “Jobs growth tends to be strong in June when the labor market is tight as firms aggressively hire youth summer workers. However, June seasonal factors have evolved significantly more restrictive—perhaps overfitting to the reopening-related job surges in June 2020 and June 2021—and represent a headwind of roughly 200k in our view.”
  • Big data indicators were generally weaker, potentially hit by tighter financial conditions and modestly higher layoffs in retail and tech sectors.
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.6% with solid household employment growth offset by a 0.1pp rise in participation.
  • AHE meanwhile is seen at +0.3% M/M as the arrival of the youth labor force may have eased some of the upward pressure on wages but with scope that supervisory earnings rebound after two weak months.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.