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Trend Needle Points South


Fed Terminal Up To 5.06% in June 2023


Heading North


Late Dec/Mar Tsy Roll Level Update

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  • Goldman see nonfarm payrolls slowing to 250k despite a sizeable 50k coming from government, as a result of more restrictive seasonal factors and weaker big data indicators.
  • “Jobs growth tends to be strong in June when the labor market is tight as firms aggressively hire youth summer workers. However, June seasonal factors have evolved significantly more restrictive—perhaps overfitting to the reopening-related job surges in June 2020 and June 2021—and represent a headwind of roughly 200k in our view.”
  • Big data indicators were generally weaker, potentially hit by tighter financial conditions and modestly higher layoffs in retail and tech sectors.
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.6% with solid household employment growth offset by a 0.1pp rise in participation.
  • AHE meanwhile is seen at +0.3% M/M as the arrival of the youth labor force may have eased some of the upward pressure on wages but with scope that supervisory earnings rebound after two weak months.

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