Governing PiS Retains Lead In Latest Poll But Could Suffer If Opp Unites

The governing right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) retains its lead in the latest set of opinion polls from IBRiS, but the scale of the party's lead is changed when voters are offered hypothetical scenarios of opposition parties in electoral alliances:

• In the first scenario, each party runs as a separate entity, with PiS holding a large lead over its closest competitor, the centre-right Civic Coalition: PiS: 39% (+4), Civic Coalition: 24% (-5), Poland 2050: 15% (-4), The Left: 9% (+1), Confederation: 7% (+1), Polish People's Party: 6% (+2). +/- vs. 30-31 October 2020, Fieldwork: 8-9 January 2021, Sample size: 1,100.
• However, in the scenario where the Civic Coalition runs with The Left, and Poland 2050 runs with PSL, the lead for PiS is cut notably: PiS: 38% (-6), Civic Coalition-The Left: 36% (-4), Poland 2050/Polish People's Party: 17% (+8), Conferderation: 9% (+2).+/- vs. 2019 election, Fieldwork: 8-9 Jan 2021, Sample size: 1,100
• While these alliances remain as hypothetical, polls continue to indicate that if a snap election were to take place, the governing PiS would struggle to maintain a majority in parliament. Given the notable opposition to the gov't from opposition parties across the political spectrum, finding coalition partners for the PiS would likely prove difficult.