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Government Sees Sharp Slowdown In Monthly CPI This Year

ARGENTINA
  • The government sees monthly CPI inflation slowing to 3.8% by September (from +11% m/m in March), according to a recent presentation, below analyst estimates of 6.2%. Meanwhile, GDP is expected to fall by 2.8% this year, better than the -3.5% estimate in a recent BCRA analyst poll. This preceded the release of February economic activity data, which came in better than expected yesterday. The GDP proxy fell by just 0.2% m/m (sa) (vs. -0.8% prior), the smallest contraction since October. Activity was still down by 3.2% y/y (vs. -6% expected), with analysts noting the impact of the government’s stabilisation programme early this year.
  • Separately, the BCRA reported that its net international reserves were negative $4.18bn as of April 19 when taking into account treasury deposits and its short-term liabilities from bond auctions meant to facilitate imports. When judged by the criteria used by the IMF earlier this year, however, net reserves were still in positive territory, at $552mn.
  • No macro data are published today, with the next release being April consumer confidence, due tomorrow. On the political front, President Milei will attend a dinner with Uruguay President Lacalle Pou in Buenos Aires at 2330BST(1830ET).
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