Gov't Could Lose Confidence Vote After Moderates Back PM Lofven Ouster

In an abrupt change of circumstances from several days ago, Sweden's minority coalition gov't could lose a vote of no confidence this coming Monday 21 June after the main opposition parties announced their intention to vote against Prime Minister Stefan Lofven's administration.

• The socialist Left Party - which has backed the centre-left Social Democrat-Green minority gov't as part of a confidence-and-supply agreement - announced its intentions to bring a confidence vote against Lofven's gov't several days ago in a row over the deregulation of the Swedish rental housing market.
• Expectations were that while the right-wing nationalist Sweden Democrats would back the motion, the centre-right Moderates would abstain - due to the party's historic support for housing market deregulation.
• However, in a social media post Moderates leader UIf Kristersson stated that ""Our opinion is very clear, this government should never have taken office," while social conservative Christian Democrat leader Ebba Busch stated in a presser that "We were against the Lofven government when they took power. We were against the Lofven government then, we are against the Lofven government now,"
• Should the three parties of the right team up with the Left Parties in voting that they have no confidence in the Lofven gov't it would give them 181 votes in the 349-member parliament, above the 175 required for a majority.

Source: Riksdag, MNI

• Lofven could seek to make a deal with one or more of the opposition parties/the Left in the days before Monday to avoid defeat, although this could leave him political wounded. Alternatively, he could announce a snap election to head off the no confidence vote.
• Should the gov't fall and an election be called it is unclear what the likely make-up of the next gov't would be, with opinion polls showing Lofven's Social Democrats leading with the Moderates in second place and the Sweden Democrats in third. The leader of the next gov't - whether Lofven or Kristersson - would depend on the seat shares for the smaller parties in parliament and which parties they are willing to work with.