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Gov't Gets Regionalist Support To Drag 2021 Budget Over The Line

SPAIN

Yesterday it was announced that Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had secured a deal with three regionalist parties to get his minority gov'ts 2021 budget over the line in the Congress of Deputies. Spain has operated with the same rolled-over budget since 2018 due to a series of minority administrations. The inability to pass a budget was seen as a major concern given the huge pressure on public services and the economy as a whole during the COVID-19 crisis.

  • The minority coalition between Sanchez's centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the left-wing Unidos Podemos (UP) will rely on the votes of the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV), the far-left Basque nationalist EH Bildu, and the separatist Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) to secure a majority for the budget in the lower house of the Cortes Generales.
Chart 1. Likely Outcome of Budget Vote in Congress of Deputies


Source: Congreso.es, MNI


  • Relying on the support of the ERC, which actively campaigns for Catalonia to secede from Spain and EH Bildu, a party that historically was the political wing of Basque terrorist group ETA, has resulted in a major outcry from Spain's opposition parties. The inclusion of the ERC saw the liberal Citizens' Party (C's) withdraw its support from the budget.
  • In exchange for their support, the ERC have drawn concessions from Madrid, including a removal of spending limits of the Catalonian gov't imposed by Sanchez's conservative predecessor Mariano Rajoy. Also, a law mandating Castilian as the 'language of instruction' nationwide is set to be changed in a major cultural win for the ERC. Finally, there is the prospect that the law of sedition, under which nine Catalan separatist leaders are being tried in Madrid, could be altered.

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