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Greater Breadth Behind Private Payrolls Growth

US DATA
  • The BLS 1-month diffusion index of 250 private industries increased to 65.6 in January from 64.0, revised up from a 59.6. It averaged 58.8 in 2019.
  • Further, it’s left a sharply improved profile, having bottomed at 52.4 in Nov to now sit at its highest since Jan’23 – see chart.
  • Looking at it another way, health & social assistance, whilst still a major driver of private payrolls growth, is seen to have added less. It contributed 44% of private payrolls gains in 2023 vs the 50% previously thought. This share has dropped to circa 30% in the latest two months as other industries increasingly do the lifting.

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